using System;
using MathNet.Numerics.Distributions;
using Ringtoets.Piping.Data;
namespace Ringtoets.Piping.Service
{
///
/// This class is responsible for calculating a factor of safety for piping based on the sub calculations.
///
public class PipingSemiProbabilisticCalculationService
{
// Inputs
private readonly double upliftFactorOfSafety;
private readonly double heaveFactorOfSafety;
private readonly double sellmeijerFactorOfSafety;
private readonly int returnPeriod;
private readonly double constantA;
private readonly double constantB;
private readonly double assessmentSectionLength;
private readonly double contribution;
// Intermediate results
private double heaveReliability;
private double upliftReliability;
private double sellmeijerReliability;
private double heaveProbability;
private double upliftProbability;
private double sellmeijerProbability;
private double pipingProbability;
private double pipingReliability;
private double requiredProbability;
private double requiredReliability;
private double pipingFactorOfSafety;
///
/// Creates a new instance of .
///
/// The factor of safety for the uplift sub calculation.
/// The factor of safety for the heave sub calculation.
/// The factor of safety for the Sellmeijer sub calculation.
/// The return period.
/// The constant a.
/// The constant b.
/// The length of the assessment section.
/// The contribution of piping to the total failure.
private PipingSemiProbabilisticCalculationService(double upliftFactorOfSafety, double heaveFactorOfSafety, double sellmeijerFactorOfSafety, int returnPeriod, double constantA, double constantB, double assessmentSectionLength, double contribution)
{
this.heaveFactorOfSafety = heaveFactorOfSafety;
this.upliftFactorOfSafety = upliftFactorOfSafety;
this.sellmeijerFactorOfSafety = sellmeijerFactorOfSafety;
this.returnPeriod = returnPeriod;
this.constantA = constantA;
this.constantB = constantB;
this.assessmentSectionLength = assessmentSectionLength;
this.contribution = contribution;
}
///
/// Calculates the semi-probabilistic results given a with .
///
/// The calculation which is used as input for the semi-probabilistic assessment. If the semi-
/// probabilistic calculation is successful, is set.
/// Thrown when calculation has no output from a piping calculation.
public static void Calculate(PipingCalculation calculation)
{
ValidateOutputOnCalculation(calculation);
PipingProbabilityAssessmentInput pipingProbabilityAssessmentInput = calculation.PipingProbabilityAssessmentInput;
PipingOutput pipingOutput = calculation.Output;
var calculator = new PipingSemiProbabilisticCalculationService(
pipingOutput.UpliftFactorOfSafety,
pipingOutput.HeaveFactorOfSafety,
pipingOutput.SellmeijerFactorOfSafety,
pipingProbabilityAssessmentInput.Norm,
pipingProbabilityAssessmentInput.A,
pipingProbabilityAssessmentInput.B,
pipingProbabilityAssessmentInput.SectionLength,
pipingProbabilityAssessmentInput.Contribution/100);
calculator.Calculate();
calculation.SemiProbabilisticOutput = new PipingSemiProbabilisticOutput(
calculator.upliftFactorOfSafety,
calculator.upliftReliability,
1.0/calculator.upliftProbability,
calculator.heaveFactorOfSafety,
calculator.heaveReliability,
1.0/calculator.heaveProbability,
calculator.sellmeijerFactorOfSafety,
calculator.sellmeijerReliability,
1.0/calculator.sellmeijerProbability,
1.0/calculator.requiredProbability,
calculator.requiredReliability,
1.0/calculator.pipingProbability,
calculator.pipingReliability,
calculator.pipingFactorOfSafety
);
}
///
/// Performs the full semi-probabilistic calculation while setting intermediate results.
///
private void Calculate()
{
CalculatePipingReliability();
CalculateRequiredReliability();
pipingFactorOfSafety = requiredReliability/pipingReliability;
}
///
/// Calculates the required reliability based on the norm and length of the assessment section and the contribution of piping.
///
private void CalculateRequiredReliability()
{
requiredProbability = RequiredProbability();
requiredReliability = ProbabilityToReliability(requiredProbability);
}
///
/// Calculates the reliability of piping based on the factors of safety from the sub-mechanisms.
///
private void CalculatePipingReliability()
{
upliftReliability = SubMechanismReliability(upliftFactorOfSafety, upliftFactors);
upliftProbability = ReliabilityToProbability(upliftReliability);
heaveReliability = SubMechanismReliability(heaveFactorOfSafety, heaveFactors);
heaveProbability = ReliabilityToProbability(heaveReliability);
sellmeijerReliability = SubMechanismReliability(sellmeijerFactorOfSafety, sellmeijerFactors);
sellmeijerProbability = ReliabilityToProbability(sellmeijerReliability);
pipingProbability = PipingProbability(upliftProbability, heaveProbability, sellmeijerProbability);
pipingReliability = ProbabilityToReliability(pipingProbability);
}
///
/// Calculates the probability of occurrence of the piping failure mechanism.
///
/// The calculated probability of the heave sub-mechanism.
/// The calculated probability of the uplift sub-mechanism.
/// The calculated probability of the Sellmeijer sub-mechanism.
/// A value representing the probability of occurrence of piping.
private static double PipingProbability(double probabilityOfHeave, double probabilityOfUplift, double probabilityOfSellmeijer)
{
return Math.Min(Math.Min(probabilityOfHeave, probabilityOfUplift), probabilityOfSellmeijer);
}
///
/// Calculates the required probability of the piping failure mechanism for the complete assessment section.
///
/// A value representing the required probability.
private double RequiredProbability()
{
return (contribution/returnPeriod)/(1 + (constantA*assessmentSectionLength)/constantB);
}
private double SubMechanismReliability(double factorOfSafety, SubCalculationFactors factors)
{
var norm = (1.0/returnPeriod);
var bNorm = ProbabilityToReliability(norm);
return (1/factors.A)*(Math.Log(factorOfSafety/factors.B) + (factors.C*bNorm));
}
private static void ValidateOutputOnCalculation(PipingCalculation calculation)
{
if (!calculation.HasOutput)
{
throw new ArgumentException("Cannot perform a semi-probabilistic calculation without output from the piping kernel.");
}
}
private static double ReliabilityToProbability(double reliability)
{
return Normal.CDF(0, 1, -reliability);
}
private static double ProbabilityToReliability(double probability)
{
return Normal.InvCDF(0, 1, 1 - probability);
}
#region sub-calculation constants
private struct SubCalculationFactors
{
public double A;
public double B;
public double C;
}
private readonly SubCalculationFactors upliftFactors = new SubCalculationFactors
{
A = 0.46, B = 0.48, C = 0.27
};
private readonly SubCalculationFactors heaveFactors = new SubCalculationFactors
{
A = 0.48, B = 0.37, C = 0.30
};
private readonly SubCalculationFactors sellmeijerFactors = new SubCalculationFactors
{
A = 0.37, B = 1.04, C = 0.43
};
#endregion
}
}