Index: Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/ProbabilityAssessmentService.cs
===================================================================
diff -u
--- Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/ProbabilityAssessmentService.cs	(revision 0)
+++ Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/ProbabilityAssessmentService.cs	(revision 678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10)
@@ -0,0 +1,78 @@
+// Copyright (C) Stichting Deltares 2016. All rights reserved.
+//
+// This file is part of Ringtoets.
+//
+// Ringtoets is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
+// it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
+// the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
+// (at your option) any later version.
+// 
+// This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
+// but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
+// MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
+// GNU General Public License for more details.
+//
+// You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
+// along with this program. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
+//
+// All names, logos, and references to "Deltares" are registered trademarks of
+// Stichting Deltares and remain full property of Stichting Deltares at all times.
+// All rights reserved.
+
+using System;
+using MathNet.Numerics.Distributions;
+using Ringtoets.Common.Data.Probability;
+
+namespace Ringtoets.Common.Service
+{
+    /// <summary>
+    /// Service for calculating <see cref="ProbabilityAssessmentOutput"/>.
+    /// </summary>
+    public static class ProbabilityAssessmentService
+    {
+        /// <summary>
+        /// Calculates the <see cref="ProbabilityAssessmentOutput"/> given <paramref name="probabilityAssessmentInput"/> and <paramref name="reliability"/>.
+        /// </summary>
+        /// <param name="probabilityAssessmentInput">The probability assesment input to use for the calculation.</param>
+        /// <param name="reliability">The reliability to use for the calculation.</param>
+        /// <exception cref="ArgumentNullException">Thrown when <paramref name="probabilityAssessmentInput"/> is <c>null</c>.</exception>
+        public static ProbabilityAssessmentOutput Calculate(ProbabilityAssessmentInput probabilityAssessmentInput, double reliability)
+        {
+            if (probabilityAssessmentInput == null)
+            {
+                throw new ArgumentNullException("probabilityAssessmentInput");
+            }
+
+            var requiredProbability = RequiredProbability(probabilityAssessmentInput.Contribution / 100.0, probabilityAssessmentInput.Norm, probabilityAssessmentInput.N);
+            var probability = ReliabilityToProbability(reliability);
+            var requiredReliability = ProbabilityToReliability(requiredProbability);
+            var factorOfSafety = FactorOfSafety(reliability, requiredReliability);
+
+            return new ProbabilityAssessmentOutput(1/requiredProbability,
+                                                   requiredReliability,
+                                                   1/probability,
+                                                   reliability,
+                                                   factorOfSafety);
+        }
+
+        private static double RequiredProbability(double contribution, double norm, double lengthEffectN)
+        {
+            return contribution*(1/norm)/lengthEffectN;
+        }
+
+        private static double ReliabilityToProbability(double reliability)
+        {
+            return Normal.CDF(0, 1, -reliability);
+        }
+
+        private static double ProbabilityToReliability(double probability)
+        {
+            return Normal.InvCDF(0, 1, 1 - probability);
+        }
+
+        private static double FactorOfSafety(double reliability, double requiredReliability)
+        {
+            return reliability/requiredReliability;
+        }
+    }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
Index: Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/Ringtoets.Common.Service.csproj
===================================================================
diff -u -r507e30ebf13ba63fcedbe9a5b8457f302da26429 -r678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10
--- Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/Ringtoets.Common.Service.csproj	(.../Ringtoets.Common.Service.csproj)	(revision 507e30ebf13ba63fcedbe9a5b8457f302da26429)
+++ Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/Ringtoets.Common.Service.csproj	(.../Ringtoets.Common.Service.csproj)	(revision 678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10)
@@ -32,25 +32,38 @@
     <CodeAnalysisRuleSet>AllRules.ruleset</CodeAnalysisRuleSet>
   </PropertyGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
+    <Reference Include="MathNet.Numerics, Version=3.8.0.0, Culture=neutral, processorArchitecture=MSIL">
+      <HintPath>..\..\..\..\packages\MathNet.Numerics.3.8.0\lib\net40\MathNet.Numerics.dll</HintPath>
+    </Reference>
     <Reference Include="System" />
     <Reference Include="System.Core" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
     <Compile Include="..\..\..\..\Core\Common\src\Core.Common.Version\GlobalAssembly.cs">
       <Link>Properties\GlobalAssembly.cs</Link>
     </Compile>
+    <Compile Include="ProbabilityAssessmentService.cs" />
     <Compile Include="Properties\AssemblyInfo.cs" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\..\..\..\Core\Common\src\Core.Common.Base\Core.Common.Base.csproj">
+      <Project>{3bbfd65b-b277-4e50-ae6d-bd24c3434609}</Project>
+      <Name>Core.Common.Base</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
     <ProjectReference Include="..\..\..\..\Core\Common\src\Core.Common.Version\Core.Common.Version.csproj">
       <Project>{c90b77da-e421-43cc-b82e-529651bc21ac}</Project>
       <Name>Core.Common.Version</Name>
     </ProjectReference>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\Ringtoets.Common.Data\Ringtoets.Common.Data.csproj">
+      <Project>{D4200F43-3F72-4F42-AF0A-8CED416A38EC}</Project>
+      <Name>Ringtoets.Common.Data</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
   </ItemGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
     <None Include="..\..\..\..\build\Copying.licenseheader">
       <Link>Copying.licenseheader</Link>
     </None>
+    <None Include="packages.config" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <Import Project="$(MSBuildToolsPath)\Microsoft.CSharp.targets" />
   <!-- To modify your build process, add your task inside one of the targets below and uncomment it. 
Index: Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/packages.config
===================================================================
diff -u
--- Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/packages.config	(revision 0)
+++ Ringtoets/Common/src/Ringtoets.Common.Service/packages.config	(revision 678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10)
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
+
+<!--
+Copyright (C) Stichting Deltares 2016. All rights reserved.
+
+This file is part of Ringtoets.
+
+Ringtoets is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
+it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
+the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
+(at your option) any later version.
+
+This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
+but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
+MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
+GNU General Public License for more details.
+
+You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
+along with this program. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
+
+All names, logos, and references to "Deltares" are registered trademarks of
+Stichting Deltares and remain full property of Stichting Deltares at all times.
+All rights reserved.
+-->
+<packages>
+  <package id="MathNet.Numerics" version="3.8.0" targetFramework="net40" />
+</packages>
\ No newline at end of file
Index: Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/ProbabilityAssessmentServiceTest.cs
===================================================================
diff -u
--- Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/ProbabilityAssessmentServiceTest.cs	(revision 0)
+++ Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/ProbabilityAssessmentServiceTest.cs	(revision 678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10)
@@ -0,0 +1,151 @@
+// Copyright (C) Stichting Deltares 2016. All rights reserved.
+//
+// This file is part of Ringtoets.
+//
+// Ringtoets is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
+// it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
+// the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
+// (at your option) any later version.
+// 
+// This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
+// but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
+// MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
+// GNU General Public License for more details.
+//
+// You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
+// along with this program. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
+//
+// All names, logos, and references to "Deltares" are registered trademarks of
+// Stichting Deltares and remain full property of Stichting Deltares at all times.
+// All rights reserved.
+
+using System;
+using NUnit.Framework;
+using Ringtoets.Common.Data.Probability;
+using Ringtoets.Common.Data.TestUtil;
+
+namespace Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test
+{
+    [TestFixture]
+    public class ProbabilityAssessmentServiceTest
+    {
+        [Test]
+        public void Calculate_NullProbabilityAssessmentInput_ThrowsArgumentNullException()
+        {
+            //Call
+            TestDelegate test = () => ProbabilityAssessmentService.Calculate(null, double.NaN);
+
+            // Assert
+            var exception = Assert.Throws<ArgumentNullException>(test);
+            Assert.AreEqual("probabilityAssessmentInput", exception.ParamName);
+        }
+
+        [Test]
+        [TestCase(30000, 100, 2, 60000)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 100, 1, 30000)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 24, 2, 250000)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 24, 1, 125000)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 100, 2, 40000)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 100, 1, 20000)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 24, 2, 166666.6667)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 24, 1, 83333.33)]
+        public void RequiredProbability_DifferentInputs_ReturnsExpectedValue(int norm, double contribution, int lengthEffectN, double expectedResult)
+        {
+            // Setup
+            var input = new ProbabilityAssessmentInput
+            {
+                Norm = norm,
+                Contribution = contribution,
+                N = lengthEffectN
+            };
+
+            // Call
+            var probabilityAssessmentOutput = ProbabilityAssessmentService.Calculate(input, double.NaN);
+
+            // Assert
+            Assert.AreEqual(expectedResult, probabilityAssessmentOutput.RequiredProbability, probabilityAssessmentOutput.RequiredProbability.GetAccuracy());
+        }
+
+        [Test]
+        [TestCase(30000, 100, 2, 4.149409984)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 100, 1, 3.987878937)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 24, 2, 4.465183916)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 24, 1, 4.314451022)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 100, 2, 4.055626981)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 100, 1, 3.890591886)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 24, 2, 4.377587847)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 24, 1, 4.2240038)]
+        public void RequiredReliability_DifferentInputs_ReturnsExpectedValue(int norm, double contribution, int lengthEffectN, double expectedResult)
+        {
+            // Setup
+            var input = new ProbabilityAssessmentInput
+            {
+                Norm = norm,
+                Contribution = contribution,
+                N = lengthEffectN
+            };
+
+            // Call
+            var probabilityAssessmentOutput = ProbabilityAssessmentService.Calculate(input, double.NaN);
+
+            // Assert
+            Assert.AreEqual(expectedResult, probabilityAssessmentOutput.RequiredReliability, probabilityAssessmentOutput.RequiredReliability.GetAccuracy());
+        }
+
+        [Test]
+        [TestCase(1.23456, 1.23456)]
+        [TestCase(789.123, 789.123)]
+        public void Reliability_DifferentInputs_ReturnsExpectedValue(double reliability, double expectedResult)
+        {
+            // Setup
+            var input = new ProbabilityAssessmentInput();
+
+            // Call
+            var probabilityAssessmentOutput = ProbabilityAssessmentService.Calculate(input, reliability);
+
+            // Assert
+            Assert.AreEqual(expectedResult, probabilityAssessmentOutput.Reliability, probabilityAssessmentOutput.Reliability.GetAccuracy());
+        }
+
+        [Test]
+        [TestCase(4, 31574.3855346)]
+        [TestCase(5, 3488555.78723)]
+        public void Probability_DifferentInputs_ReturnsExpectedValue(double reliability, double expectedResult)
+        {
+            // Setup
+            var input = new ProbabilityAssessmentInput();
+
+            // Call
+            var probabilityAssessmentOutput = ProbabilityAssessmentService.Calculate(input, reliability);
+
+            // Assert
+            Assert.AreEqual(expectedResult, probabilityAssessmentOutput.Probability, probabilityAssessmentOutput.Probability.GetAccuracy());
+        }
+
+        [Test]
+        [TestCase(30000, 100, 2, 4.107479655, 0.989894869)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 100, 2, 4.149409984, 1)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 24, 2, 4.107479655, 0.919890363)]
+        [TestCase(30000, 24, 2, 4.149409984, 0.929280868)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 100, 2, 4.107479655, 1.012785366)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 100, 2, 4.149409984, 1.023124169)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 24, 2, 4.107479655, 0.938297482)]
+        [TestCase(20000, 24, 2, 4.149409984, 0.947875892)]
+        public void FactorOfSafety_DifferentInputs_ReturnsExpectedValue(int norm, double contribution, int lengthEffectN, double reliability, double expectedResult)
+        {
+            // Setup
+            var input = new ProbabilityAssessmentInput
+            {
+                Norm = norm,
+                Contribution = contribution,
+                N = lengthEffectN
+            };
+
+            // Call
+            var probabilityAssessmentOutput = ProbabilityAssessmentService.Calculate(input, reliability);
+
+            // Assert
+            Assert.AreEqual(expectedResult, probabilityAssessmentOutput.FactorOfSafety, probabilityAssessmentOutput.FactorOfSafety.GetAccuracy());
+        }
+    }
+}
\ No newline at end of file
Index: Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test.csproj
===================================================================
diff -u -r507e30ebf13ba63fcedbe9a5b8457f302da26429 -r678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10
--- Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test.csproj	(.../Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test.csproj)	(revision 507e30ebf13ba63fcedbe9a5b8457f302da26429)
+++ Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test.csproj	(.../Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test.csproj)	(revision 678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10)
@@ -39,17 +39,40 @@
     <CodeAnalysisRuleSet>MinimumRecommendedRules.ruleset</CodeAnalysisRuleSet>
   </PropertyGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
+    <Reference Include="nunit.framework">
+      <HintPath>..\..\..\..\packages\NUnit.2.6.4\lib\nunit.framework.dll</HintPath>
+    </Reference>
     <Reference Include="System" />
     <Reference Include="System.Core" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
+    <Compile Include="ProbabilityAssessmentServiceTest.cs" />
     <Compile Include="Properties\AssemblyInfo.cs" />
   </ItemGroup>
   <ItemGroup>
     <None Include="..\..\..\..\build\Copying.licenseheader">
       <Link>Copying.licenseheader</Link>
     </None>
+    <None Include="packages.config" />
   </ItemGroup>
+  <ItemGroup>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\..\..\..\Core\Common\src\Core.Common.Base\Core.Common.Base.csproj">
+      <Project>{3bbfd65b-b277-4e50-ae6d-bd24c3434609}</Project>
+      <Name>Core.Common.Base</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\..\src\Ringtoets.Common.Data\Ringtoets.Common.Data.csproj">
+      <Project>{d4200f43-3f72-4f42-af0a-8ced416a38ec}</Project>
+      <Name>Ringtoets.Common.Data</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\..\src\Ringtoets.Common.Service\Ringtoets.Common.Service.csproj">
+      <Project>{D951D6DA-FE83-4920-9FDB-63BF96480B54}</Project>
+      <Name>Ringtoets.Common.Service</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
+    <ProjectReference Include="..\Ringtoets.Common.Data.TestUtil\Ringtoets.Common.Data.TestUtil.csproj">
+      <Project>{4843D6E5-066F-4795-94F5-1D53932DD03C}</Project>
+      <Name>Ringtoets.Common.Data.TestUtil</Name>
+    </ProjectReference>
+  </ItemGroup>
   <Import Project="$(MSBuildToolsPath)\Microsoft.CSharp.targets" />
   <!-- To modify your build process, add your task inside one of the targets below and uncomment it. 
        Other similar extension points exist, see Microsoft.Common.targets.
Index: Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/packages.config
===================================================================
diff -u
--- Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/packages.config	(revision 0)
+++ Ringtoets/Common/test/Ringtoets.Common.Service.Test/packages.config	(revision 678dc8c8dbb01fd889a082ae88c9f9d42f597a10)
@@ -0,0 +1,27 @@
+<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?>
+
+<!--
+Copyright (C) Stichting Deltares 2016. All rights reserved.
+
+This file is part of Ringtoets.
+
+Ringtoets is free software: you can redistribute it and/or modify
+it under the terms of the GNU General Public License as published by
+the Free Software Foundation, either version 3 of the License, or
+(at your option) any later version.
+
+This program is distributed in the hope that it will be useful,
+but WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY; without even the implied warranty of
+MERCHANTABILITY or FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. See the
+GNU General Public License for more details.
+
+You should have received a copy of the GNU General Public License
+along with this program. If not, see <http://www.gnu.org/licenses/>.
+
+All names, logos, and references to "Deltares" are registered trademarks of
+Stichting Deltares and remain full property of Stichting Deltares at all times.
+All rights reserved.
+-->
+<packages>
+  <package id="NUnit" version="2.6.4" targetFramework="net40" />
+</packages>
\ No newline at end of file